Pemenuhan Target Permintaan Penjualan Perusahaan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dan Moving Average Di PT Vinilon Jaya Sakti
Pemenuhan Target Permintaan Penjualan Perusahaan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dan Moving Average Di PT Vinilon Jaya Sakti
Keywords:
demand forecasting, exponential smoothing, ,moving average, inventory managementAbstract
Consumer demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of company operational management to optimize production and inventory. This research aims to optimize the demand forecasting system for PVC pipe products at PT Vinilon Jaya Sakti using Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average methods. The analyzed data covers the period from January to December 2023, with a total of 1,559 production units. The study employs three different alpha (?) values: 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 to identify optimal accuracy levels. Results show that the Exponential Smoothing method with ? = 0.3 provides optimal balance between model stability and responsiveness, with MAPE below 10%. This model effectively accommodates demand fluctuations and provides accurate forecasting for medium-term planning. The model implementation contributes significantly to optimizing the company's sales and inventory management.
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